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One of the ways to achieve long-term profits in football betting is by using the Kelly Criterion formula. It is used to manage the risk-reward balance and can be applied to both stock investments and gambling. If you are a novice bettor, the information provided by Wintips below will be extremely helpful in assisting you with safe betting.
Understanding the Kelly Criterion Formula for Players
Kelly is a mathematical formula that you can use to determine the optimal betting amount on an opportunity. It helps you ascertain the profit scale you can expect to generate based on your betting amount.
You need to calculate the probability of winning the bet and incorporate it into the mathematical calculations. The basic idea behind this is to ensure that your overall losses are smaller, and your overall potential profits are greater.
To achieve this, you need to bet a lower amount when wagering on outcomes with lower winning chances, and vice versa. There is no way to do this unless you calculate your expected winning probability. However, even with accurate calculations, you cannot predict an outcome with absolute certainty.
Example of the Kelly Criterion Formula
Suppose you are using this method to place a bet on the match between Manchester United and Manchester City. The probability of Manchester United winning is 58.5% with odds of 1.71, Manchester City winning is 27.4% with odds of 3.65, and the draw is 30.8% with odds of 3.25.
When applying the Kelly Criterion formula to calculate the above numbers, you will analyze that the actual probability for Manchester United to win is about 65%. According to the Kelly Criterion: P = 0.65; B = 1.71 - 1 = 0.71; Q = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35. Thus, you will have: (0.71 x 0.65 - 0.35) / 0.71 = 15.7%.
Advantages and Disadvantages of the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is considered one of the most effective bankroll management formulas in today's betting market. Let's consider the advantages and disadvantages of this method as follows:
Advantages:
Helps effectively manage your betting capital before and during the betting process.
Calculates a reasonable betting amount based on the win-loss ratio and bookmakers' odds.
Minimizes risks, allowing you to win more bets.
Provides a broader perspective of the match before making a betting decision.
Statistical data is easy to analyze, helping players devise reasonable betting strategies.
Disadvantages:
Accuracy is not 100% guaranteed, even though it is a fairly effective bankroll management method.
Players need to determine the winning probability for the match they want to bet on.
Evaluation of the Kelly Criterion Bankroll Management: Is It Good?
The Kelly Criterion principle is a balanced betting technique between risk and reward for advantage players. The most obvious advantage of the Kelly Criterion formula in football betting is helping players decide how much to bet.
It takes time and practice to get used to using the formulas and accurately performing your calculations, but it is quite convenient. All you have to do is find the numbers you need, then replace the variables in the formula with them, and you will get the computation.
Players can use calculators to accurately calculate equations. The second advantage is that this strategy can help you avoid placing poor bets when there is no positive expected value.
We hope the information provided by Wintips has helped you understand the Kelly Criterion formula better and effectively apply it to calculating your football betting amounts.
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